Ram Puniyani
The
spectacular performance of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly elections
(November 2013) has changed the perceptions and anticipations about the
forthcoming general elections to be held in 2014. It has also led to rethink about
the equations of electoral politics in general. While BJP emerged as the single
largest party and could have staked claim to form the Government, it refrained
from that. AAP, after an initial hesitation, went in for opinion taking
exercise, and decided to cross the obstacles of being a bit short of majority
and formed the Government.
Before
we go to the scenario created by the results of the elections and AAP’s forming
the Government, let’s have a bit of the peep into the circumstances which led
to emergence of AAP. The anti-corruption movement launched by Arvind Kejrival
with Anna Hazare as the face of the movement, was a spectacle, which shook the
system. It was strongly supported by all and sundry, from the Khaps, to the
MBA-IT middle class to builders and traders amongst others. It had the solid
backing of RSS in the major process of mobilization of the people. The upsurge
came to challenge the very parliamentary system, and it was touch and go for
survival of the Parliament, which survived this pressure from the Anna-Kejrival
led movement. Bringing in of the Lokpal bill to curb corruption was at the
centre of the movement. The future trajectory of this was interesting as there
was a clear emergence of two streams from the movement. One was the stream,
which wanted to target only Congress, as articulated by Kiran Bedi and the
other was the one led by Kejrival, which broadened the target to corruption all
around.
The
latter stream led to formation of AAP and its deciding to begin it journey from
Delhi Assembly elections. It took up the ‘municipal issues’ bijli, pani, (electricity,
water) in particular and went whole hog to drill the point in Delhi. AAP wore its
sincerity on its sleeves and was able to reach to the Aam Aadmi, in the jhuggi
jhopdi’s (pavements, slums), addressing their pain and anguish about the rampant
corruption at all the levels. The result was that the section of Delhi citizens
unhappy due to the rising prices, and other problems of daily living shifted
from supporting Congress to AAP. AAP could marginally erode the BJP-RSS base as
well. Its main base was from the traditional Congress supporters. It is quite
likely that many people who might have wanted to vote for them did not do so,
as it was AAP’s first foray into elections. With their victory the message is
clear that AAP is being seen as the major alternative to present dominant parties.
This is also testified by the huge avalanche of those wanting to become members
of AAP and also volunteering to work for this party.
Meanwhile
so far, the electoral script was dominated by Narendra Modi, who through the
sustained propaganda of ‘development of Gujarat’ built up an image of a strong
leader who has delivered results in Gujarat, rose to be the Prime Ministerial
aspirant, backed by BJP and its parent RSS. Modi had more or less succeeded in
putting his role in Gujarat carnage under the carpet; this exercise of his has
been aided by the partial presentation of facts of Gujarat by SIT and upheld by
Metropolitan magistrate. Through
carefully constructed public meetings and helpful media, Modi started gaining
momentum as the potential victor in the next elections. The careful management
of social media was on one side projecting him in the illuminating light, on
the other side Team-Modi-BJP-RSS was targeting Congress and Rahul Gandhi with
full blast. The proposal for the tall statue of Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel, run
for unity and other events were the add-ons for Modi’s electoral campaign.
AAP’s
emergence and the realization that it may not be a mere ‘one go’ phenomenon,
the strategists in Nagpur head office, RSS top brass and Modi’ team have
changed the strategy. Now their major fire is directed against AAP. Social
media and other word of mouth propaganda is going full barrel against Kejrival,
Prashant Bhushan, Yogenra Yadav and Company. Prashant Bhushan’s balanced
statement that the opinion of people of Kashmir should be taken about the army
deployment in Kashmir, met with a hostile response. AAP office was ransacked by
Hindu Raksha Sena, whom AAP blames to be the outfit of RSS-BJP. Kejrival
himself disassociated with that statement is another matter at present. The
threat being perceived by the secular democratic forces, that Modi’s becoming
the Prime Minister will herald the era of fascism seems to have been blunted partly
at the moment due to the unprecedented response being received by AAP. How much
of this is true, one is not sure. There are multiple factors working on both
the sides. RSS-BJP-Modi is not going to keep quiet about the rising perceptions
and image of AAP. The big Corporate see their interests with Modi coming to
power, as he has kept the coffers of public money and facilities open for them,
as no one else can do. The media controlled by them is also currently partly favorable
to AAP.
In
1998, when BJP re-emerged as a single largest party, the opportunist political
formations came to support it on various grounds. Mercifully, Modi was not
there. Mercifully his right hand man Amit Shah was not there, then. Mercifully
BJP did not have too much of a lead and had to accommodate the wishes of its
allies, while pushing forward the agenda of RSS-Hindu Nation. This time around
if Modi emerges as a single largest formation, equations will be different as
now BJP has the background experience of having ruled once; Modi will have
different tricks up his sleeve. While so far escaping the arm of law, he is the
one who had a role in Gujarat carnage, there have been fake encounters in his
state, there has been a case of snooping on a young girl and now there is an
attempt to implicate the human rights defenders like Teesta Setalvad and
others. So Modi is different. BJP
under him will be more assertive, in case they manage to come to power.
What
is the politics of AAP? The politics of parties is judged by their actions and
by their pronouncements, manifestos. There is not too much of writing by AAP on
its politics, it does have a vision document of sorts. It emerged out of anti
corruption movement. The movement was based merely on the symptom of the deeper
disease of social-economic-political system. The underlying disease of the
system has not been addressed. The parties, which are for social change, for
the agenda of the downtrodden and deprived have generally emerged from the
longing to have a better system, have a theory. Indian National Congress had
the need to engage with the British colonialism and articulated nascent Indian Nationalism;
Bhagat Singh aspired for socialist state (Hindustan Socialist Republican
Association). Ambedkar began with Independent Labor party as he identified the
depressed classes with workers, and went on to lay the foundation for Republicanism,
Republican Party of India. Muslims elite dreamt of Muslim state and had Muslim
League while section of Hindu elite wanted Hindu Nation so had Hindu Mahasabha
and RSS. Various socialist parties have also emerged in the recent times. AAP
seems to be a different experiment. As AAP itself is a party in making, its
leadership may be thinking that its ideology will emerge, through movement and
through introspection. Though so far on the issues like Kashmir it has snubbed
its own leader for expressing something, which expresses an ideology related to
the type of Nation state we want. On Education its proposed policy is
parochial. On most of the serious issues its vision document is silent. The
task of party building seems be very promising and challenging both. The major
question is can it overcome its superficial approach and apply itself and stick
its neck out on contentious issues related to economic policy, national policy,
social and gender justice. There are lots of expectations in the air, time
alone will tell as to which side the party marches overcoming the initial
hiccups and enjoying the immunity of ‘honeymoon period’ at the same time.
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